The overall score decreases were quite small — roughly two points in math and a single point in reading — but continued a trend of lackluster 12th-grade performance on the national test. The change in the 2015 results registered as statistically different in math compared to two years ago, but not in reading.

Researchers cautioned against reading too much into such minor shifts.

“A one point move … is not significant in the real world,” Tom Loveless, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said Monday.

Still the latest results paint a sobering picture of educational progress. Just 37 percent of students were prepared for college-level coursework in each subject, according to the test. Only 3 percent of students in reading and 6 percent in math were deemed “advanced,” a rigorous bar.

Results dropped the most for students who were already struggling. Those at the 10th percentile fell six points in reading and four points in math. Students in the top 90th percentile saw their scores go up two points in reading but drop one point in math.

“The 12th-grade NAEP results confirm the need to move swiftly to ensure that all students have access to high-quality programs that prepare them for success in higher education and the workforce,” said Massachusetts Education Commissioner Mitchell Chester in a statement. “Too many 12th-graders are unprepared for the world after high school.”

Breaking out the 12th-grade scores by race since 2005 show some small differences in trends among groups, as well as yawning and largely stagnant achievement gaps. A bright spot: Hispanic students made the biggest gains during that time, going up six points in math and four points in reading.

The NAEP is a long-running, low-stakes exam administered by the federal government to a nationally representative sample of students in grades 4, 8, and 12 to gauge educational progress over time.

The latest 12th-grade results follow similarly disappointing news on fourth- and eighth-grade exams released last year, showing scores had dropped. But unlike the fourth- and eighth-grade scores, which have generally been climbing, particularly in math, since the 1990s with the exception of last year, the overall 12th-grade results have barely moved over the past decade even as the high school graduation rate reached an all-time high of 82 percent in 2013-14.

Twelfth-grade reading scores in 2015 were just a point higher than in 2005, while math scores went up two points since then. In reading, the average score is five points lower than in 1992. (Comparable data that far back is not available in math due to a change in the test.)

“The fourth-grade gains since the ’90s have been much larger than the eighth-grade gains, and the eighth-grade gains have been larger than the 12th-grade gains — and the 12th-graders have basically been flat,” said Loveless.

Popular hypotheses for this include the idea that 12th-graders may be overloaded with tests and simply don’t take the exam seriously since it has no stakes attached. Others have suggested that the increased graduation rates have led to more struggling students staying in school, driving down scores.

Matt Chingos, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute who has studied the phenomenon said he hasn’t found convincing evidence for any of the explanations: “The disappointing answer is we don’t know.”

Critics of policies pushed by the Obama administration and many state policymakers — such as adopting the Common Core, revamping teacher evaluation and expanding charter schools — may seize on the latest NAEP results, but researchers warn against using national test scores to judge specific policies, a practice sometimes called “misNAEPery.”

“The long and the short of it is that any stories that come out in the weeks after NAEP scores are released should be, at best, tentative and hypothesis-generating (as opposed to definitive and causal effect-claiming),” University of Southern California professor Morgan Polikoff wrote in a October 2015 blog post entitled “Friends don’t let friends misuse NAEP data.”

Footnotes:

1. There are actually two NAEP tests: the “long-term trends” assessment and the main NAEP test. The latest results come from the main NAEP.

This story was published in partnership with The74Million.org.

Shannon Garrison

Shannon Garrison, a fourth grade teacher at LA Unified’s Solano Elementary School, has been reappointed to the National Assessment Governing Board, which helps set policy for the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), commonly known as the “nation’s report card.”

Garrison was appointed to the board in 2010 and will serve another four-year term.

“I am honored to have been reappointed to the National Assessment Governing Board (NAGB) by Secretary of Education [Arne] Duncan,” Garrison said in a district press release. “I have had the opportunity to work with and learn from a diverse group of individuals from across the nation who care deeply about education and student success. My work on the board has deepened my knowledge of assessment methodology, item development, and standard setting. This learning has strengthened my ability to effectively assess student learning and evaluate the appropriateness of assessment items.”

The board, which is made up of politicians, school officials, educators, business leaders and others— is appointed by the secretary of the U.S. Department of Education but operates independently and is responsible for developing the framework and test specifications that serve as the blueprint for the NAEP’s assessments, according to the NAEP’s website.

“Ms. Garrison is an amazing leader with a distinguished career in the LAUSD,” LA Unified board member Monica Garcia said in a statement. “She serves our local 4th graders at Solano Elementary and will continue to serve our nation’s children through her work with the NAEP. High-quality instructional leaders are key to getting to 100% graduation. We are proud to have the authentic LAUSD perspective informing the national conversation on student achievement.”

At LAUSD, the district said Garrison has served as a data coordinator, bilingual and Title I program coordinator, writing coordinator, science lead teacher and member of the language appraisal and student success teams. She also received a Milken National Educator Award in 2008.

“Shannon is an exemplary teacher whose hard work and dedication endear her to staff and students alike,” Solano Principal William Bertrand said in a statement.

Results for fourth and eighth grade reading and math were released today,

“The resilience and tenacity of our schools have seen them through some challenging years, and I’m glad to see this validation of the hard work of educators, students and their families,” Tom Torlakson, State Superintendent of Public Instruction, said in a statement. “These scores are another sign that we are moving in the right direction to prepare students for college and career, but we still have a lot of work to do to make sure every student graduates equipped to succeed.”

While California students continue to score a few points below other students nationwide, major gains have been made over the past decade. And while some gains were made this year in narrowing the gap between higher achieving students and African American and Hispanic students, a persistent achievement gap remained.

About 220 school districts and 740 schools in California participated in NAEP during the 2012-13 school year, state officials said. Results are reported for populations of students, not for individual students or schools. Complete state and national results are available here.

Here are the results for California:

Grade 8 reading: The state average score climbed 7 points, to 262 this year, from 255 in 2011. Scores also rose for students of color, socioeconomically disadvantaged pupils and children with disabilities. English learner scores were unchanged. There was no change in scores for higher achieving students and African American and Hispanic students. The average remains in the NAEP “basic” category.

Grade 8 math: The average score was 276, up 3 points from 2011. Scores were also up for all subgroups, including students of color, socioeconomically disadvantaged pupils, children with disabilities and English learners. The gap in scores between higher achieving students and African American and Hispanic students narrowed slightly. The average remains in the NAEP “basic” category.

Grade 4 reading: The average was 213, up 2 points from 2011. California’s score was in the NAEP basic range. There were modest improvements overall, with white and Hispanic students performing above the state average. The achievement gap widened slightly between higher achieving students and African American students.

Grade 4 math: The average score was 234, remaining relatively unchanged from 2011. California’s score was in the NAEP basic achievement level. There was a narrowing in scores between higher achieving students and Hispanic students.

NAEP is an ongoing, nationally representative, established by Congress in 1969.