After a random draw of letters, the ballot order is now set for how candidate names will appear. Here’s the way they will be listed:

District 1

George McKenna, incumbent

(No one else qualified)

District 3

Carl Petersen

Ankur Patel

Scott Schmerelson

Filiberto Gonzalez

Tamar Galatzan, incumbent

Elizabeth Badger Bartels

District 5

Ref Rodriguez

Bennett Kayser, incumbent

Andrew Thomas

District 7

Lydia Gutierez

Euna Anderson

Richard Vladovic, incumbent

How helpful is being listed first? It’s a question that political scientists have studied for years. Here’s the money quote from “On the Causes and Consequences of Ballot Order Effects” — a recent paper by Marc Meredith of the University of Pennsylvania and Yuval Salant of Northwestern:

“We find that candidates listed first on the ballot are between four and five percentage
points more likely to win office than expected absent order effects.”

Theirs is a highly-academic treatise on the subject that takes into account things like ap,j = αp,t(j) + Incp,jλt(j) + εp,j where αp,t(j) = δp,t(j) + Incp,jγp,t(j) + Xjβp,t(j) .

But in an LA Unified school board race, the more likely influences are incumbency, financial support and turnout.

* In an earlier version several names were mistakenly reversed. This version correct that.

But it takes some doing to figure it out.

So LA School Report has un-scrambled the randomized alphabet drawing procedure the California Secretary of State used to determined the ballot order in the LA Unified School Board special election.

Here is the Certified list of Candidates from the City Clerk’s Office.

Here’s the lineup as it will appear on the ballot:

George McKenna – Retired Principal/Superintendent

Hattie McFrazier – Retired Educator/Counselor

Omarosa Manigault – Teacher/Children Advocate

Genethia Hudley-Hayes – Education Consultant

Rachel Johnson – Educator/Gardena Councilmember

Alex Johnson – Education Policy Advisor

Sherlett Hendy Newbill – Teacher/Mother/Coach

Previous posts: Field of candidates for LAUSD school board narrows to final 7, Does experience count? LAUSD candidates vie for attention