Set for August 12, the stand-alone election not only falls in the dog days of summer, but also hits on the first day of school, when parents tend to have their minds on other things.

Some election experts are predicting that turnout could drop below the disappointing primary turnout, which was  just 13 percent.

“It will be really low, probably under 10 percent,” says Bill Carrick, a Democratic political strategist, who doesn’t have a horse in the school board race.

The vacancy, left by the death of longtime school board member Marguerite LaMotte, is a runoff contest between the top two vote-getters from a field of seven in the June primary: Alex Johnson an up-and-coming aide to County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas, and George McKenna, a retired school administrator with a long record of service in LAUSD.  McKenna won the primary with nearly 45 percent of the vote — shy of the 50 percent he needed to win outright. Johnson came in second, with 24 percent.

That election coincided with the statewide primary, but still underperformed estimates.

Even more pessimistic is Fernando Guerra, director the Center for the Study of Los Angeles at Loyola Marymount University, who told LA School Report that a runoff might attract only 5 percent of the 340,000 voters registered in the district.

A look at the history of orphan elections in the LA area supports those predictions. (See graphic).

The most recent special election in Los Angeles last December, when Sebastian Ridley-Thomas, son of the County Supervisor, Mark Ridley Thomas, won the contest for a vacant state assembly seat in south LA, in a race that garner an 8.6 percent turnout. Two other special elections last year were also marked by low turnout: Holly Mitchell won for state senate in south LA with a turnout of 5.5 percent, and Nury Martinez won for city council, with a turnout of 11 percent.

If low turnout predictions hold, each voter who does go to the polls has outsized clout.  A turnout of 5 percent in the school board race would translate into a candidate winning the race with as few as 8,500 votes.

There a few really great charts in today’s LA Times article about our ever-sinking voter turnout, including the one above. The Times shows that voter turnout in Mayoral runoffs increases an average of 18 percent from the primary.

But according to sources we’ve spoken with, voter turnout in School Board District 6 next week could actually be lower than it was during the March primary, when less than 18 percent of registered voters cast ballots.

Previous posts: Final: Mayoral Candidates Lack Commitment Reformers & Teachers Want;  Mayoral Candidates Divided by High School; Garcetti & Gruel Debate Education; Greuel Endorses Sanchez, Garcetti Undecided

The election will pick between Monica Ratliff and Antonio Sanchez for the LAUSD Board’s District 6 seat representing the East San Fernando Valley. Voters will also elect LA’s next mayor and a number of other city offices.

Early voting might seem like a sleepy issue, but it plays a big role in election outcomes. In the LA Daily News, Rick Orlov wrote about its “increasingly important role in all elections,” making up 46 percent of the total vote in the primary election. We saw  proof of the impact of vote-by-mail ballots in the March primary, when District 4 (Hollywood/Westside) LA School Board incumbent Steve Zimmer beat his challenger Kate Anderson thanks to a significant early voting advantage. (Read the story here.)

Previous posts: Calendar: Registration & Vote By Mail Schedule; How Steve Zimmer *Really* Won

So which is it? Neither, actually.  Voter turnout for the LAUSD races was initially reported at 14.5 percent in the days after the March 5 primary — just under the 16 percent turnout in the Mayoral election.

However, these numbers excluded the 82,000 outstanding ballots, which were finally announced last week.  The final LAUSD School Board voter turnout tally was 20 percent (and 21 percent in the Mayoral election). Voter turnout in the School Board races was highest in the Westside’s District 4, which saw 22.5 percent of registered voters cast ballots. Turnout in District 2 was 18 percent; District 6 saw 17.6 percent.

Previous posts: Registration & Vote By Mail Schedule, School Board Primary Averaged $55 Per Vote, Voter Turnout Far Below Expectations

“We had a 14 percent turnout for this last school board election, and for the last mayor’s race… The only person who has the wherewithal, if you will, to really push through these changes is a mayor.”

Mayor Villaraigosa famously tried and failed to win control of the School Board, won only mixed results from the just-completed 2013 primaries, and this week saw the Board vote to end the Presidency of Monica Garcia, one of his chief allies.

Previous posts: Defiant Mayor Promises Continued Involvement; Differing Views of Villaraigosa Education Record; Voter Turnout Far Below Expectations,

May 6, 2013 (Monday): The last day to register to vote in the May runoff election. (If you still haven’t registered, go here to register to vote online.)

May 14, 2013 (Tuesday): The last day to apply by mail for a vote-by-mail ballot in the May runoff election.

May 20, 2013 (Monday): The last day to drop off a vote-by-mail ballot at the Los Angeles City Clerk’s election division office. (You can also fill out and mail in the vote-by-mail ballot application on the back of an official sample ballot.)

May 21, 2013 (Tuesday): Runoff election day. It’s also the last day to drop off a vote-by-mail ballot at any polling place by closing time at 8:00 p.m.

As you may recall, Board Member Steve Zimmer won his primary challenge against Kate Anderson by building up a large advantage in early vote by mail ballots. At stake in the runoff is a School Board seat representing the East San Fernando Valley’s District 6, the mayor’s office, city controller, city attorney, and several city council seats.

Citywide, only 16 percent of LA voters cast ballots at the polls, according to figures from the LA City Clerk’s office.

This was far below initial expectations. According to political consultants LA School Report spoke with before the election, insiders had been projecting a 20 – 25 percent turnout rate.

The last time there was an election resembling this year’s was 2005’s primary election, when LA had an open mayoral seat, several city council positions, and three LAUSD Board seats on the ballot. Citywide turnout was 29 percent, and an average of 28 percent of voters voted in the Board races — even though the three Board races were uncontested.

That’s almost double the turnout in this year’s primary.

In the three hotly contested Los Angeles School Board races yesterday, average turnout was only 13 percent.

East LA’s District 2 race between incumbent Board President Monica Garcia and four challengers had a 13 percent turnout, and her 56 percent win avoided a runoff.

The Westside/Hollywood District 4 election between incumbent Steve Zimmer and Kate Anderson drew a slightly higher turnout — 15 percent. Zimmer bested Anderson with 52 percent of the vote.

And in District 6’s East San Fernando Valley, only 12 percent of voters cast votes for the three candidates, none of whom emerged as a clear winner.

The District 6 Board seat is headed for the runoff election in May. If yesterday’s turnout was any indication, it will take a different approach than the standard election mailers and phone banking to get more voters to the polls in the next election round.

Previous posts: Insider Predictions: Two Runoffs & A “Jump Ball”; FINAL LAUSD ELECTION RESULTS; Outside Spending Up $400K Since Friday – Nears $5 Million

But the upcoming March 2013 race—when Los Angeles voters will elect a new Mayor, City Council majority, and three Board of Education members—is poised to be more like 2005, when Antonio Villaraigosa faced 11 challengers and total turnout for the city was 29 percent, according to numbers from the Los Angeles City Clerk’s office.

Mike Trujillo, a political consultant who’s worked on campaigns for Board Members Tamar Galatzan and Richard Vladovic and who is in talks to consult for Board candidates this year, says that if you consider a number of factors, including the other offices up for vote, official endorsements, and changing city demographics, there is a “27 to 30 percent voter turnout prediction [for the upcoming elections]. It’s what most of the consultants will base their models on.”

In 2005, all three LAUSD board candidates for Districts 2, 4, and 6 were unopposed, but they still drew an average of 19 percent voter turnout in their districts, according to the Clerk’s office. That’s 8 points higher than in 2007, when only city council and education board seats were contested, and the average school board turnout was 11 percent.  This election, turnout may be even higher than 2005 because there are competitive races in all three districts.

So how could this affect the 2013 Board races?

A 30 percent voter turnout is not necessarily a big number, but it is significant when compared to an 11 percent turnout. With higher turnout, candidates will have to campaign to a broader group of voters, which likely means more political spending—and possibly more mudslinging. Trujillo isn’t sure if the higher turnout will necessarily change campaign messaging, “but it could very well change the price tag.”

Previous posts: UTLA-PACE’s Robust Campaign Chest, District 4 Candidate Will Appeal Disqualification, Who Will The Coalition Pick For District 6?